Finding winners in the horse racing game is never easy and has actually become more tricky with the implementation of 'ratings-based racing' over the last 18 months. Ratings based racing is forcing punters to look more closely at weights and measures in lining these gallopers up.
Ratings Based races bring together horses relative to their individual ratings and are free of any class restriction. The only 'restriction' on the eligibility for Ratings Based races is that nominated horses must be rated at or below the advertised rating. This allows horses to find suitable races based on their current form, compared to Class 1 to 6 races that hold horses in a particular class based on previous wins.
It seems obvious from feedback within the racing industry that RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) has been very well accepted. In fact, a survey of trainers/owners etc showed 86% were happy with the system, this overwhelming support (and of course the fact field sizes and therefore turnover is increased) will ensure this system remains in Victoria for some time.
Statistics in racing are everywhere but there is one website with unprecedented strike-rates and that is OzRacingForm.com which is run and operated by David Gately. He can boast a near 85% strike-rate in his top-rated runners in both Melbourne and Sydney. (broken down, that means he finds the winner of the race in his top-five selections on or near 85% of the time) We asked how his strike-rate remains at such a level of such a long period of time. David says: "I think people can over complicate and over evaluate races, it is quite rare that there are more than four or five 'winning chances' in a race and that's where we draw the line. Ok, they are animals and not motorbikes so there are always strange results on occasions, but we stick to a basic formula, bet to value runners, and enjoy a good deal of success".
The interesting thing with horses is their propensity to improve sharply from one run to another if early in their career, or early in their preparation. This is why it is imperative to notice the warning signs of a horse with significant improvement in him/her. If a horse is very 'green' (i.e. inexperienced, does things wrong) it can have tremendous scope to improve. If a horse is early in his/her campaign, it's fitness levels might not be where they are required to be and again, he/she may improve lengths at a subsequent run. Form guru David Gately says "Once you know the horses, you will know their patterns, and you will find more winners!"
It is all about knowing the horses Knowing which horse is comfortable at which distance, at which track, is s/he is better leading or ridden from behind, is s/he better suited on wet or dry ground, is s/he more likely to race well if outside other horses and not cluttered up between them? If you can look at a race and know each horse's traits or 'clicks'... You are well on your way to finding a winner.
So, ratings-based racing should not be too scary, obviously it is a little more in-depth than say, simply a set-weights maiden. (where all horses are maidens (yet to win a race) and have the same weight) However, as explained, this type of racing can be full of 'value' (horses over their true odds of winning).
Ratings Based races bring together horses relative to their individual ratings and are free of any class restriction. The only 'restriction' on the eligibility for Ratings Based races is that nominated horses must be rated at or below the advertised rating. This allows horses to find suitable races based on their current form, compared to Class 1 to 6 races that hold horses in a particular class based on previous wins.
It seems obvious from feedback within the racing industry that RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) has been very well accepted. In fact, a survey of trainers/owners etc showed 86% were happy with the system, this overwhelming support (and of course the fact field sizes and therefore turnover is increased) will ensure this system remains in Victoria for some time.
Statistics in racing are everywhere but there is one website with unprecedented strike-rates and that is OzRacingForm.com which is run and operated by David Gately. He can boast a near 85% strike-rate in his top-rated runners in both Melbourne and Sydney. (broken down, that means he finds the winner of the race in his top-five selections on or near 85% of the time) We asked how his strike-rate remains at such a level of such a long period of time. David says: "I think people can over complicate and over evaluate races, it is quite rare that there are more than four or five 'winning chances' in a race and that's where we draw the line. Ok, they are animals and not motorbikes so there are always strange results on occasions, but we stick to a basic formula, bet to value runners, and enjoy a good deal of success".
The interesting thing with horses is their propensity to improve sharply from one run to another if early in their career, or early in their preparation. This is why it is imperative to notice the warning signs of a horse with significant improvement in him/her. If a horse is very 'green' (i.e. inexperienced, does things wrong) it can have tremendous scope to improve. If a horse is early in his/her campaign, it's fitness levels might not be where they are required to be and again, he/she may improve lengths at a subsequent run. Form guru David Gately says "Once you know the horses, you will know their patterns, and you will find more winners!"
It is all about knowing the horses Knowing which horse is comfortable at which distance, at which track, is s/he is better leading or ridden from behind, is s/he better suited on wet or dry ground, is s/he more likely to race well if outside other horses and not cluttered up between them? If you can look at a race and know each horse's traits or 'clicks'... You are well on your way to finding a winner.
So, ratings-based racing should not be too scary, obviously it is a little more in-depth than say, simply a set-weights maiden. (where all horses are maidens (yet to win a race) and have the same weight) However, as explained, this type of racing can be full of 'value' (horses over their true odds of winning).
About the Author:
David Gately, baffled by the quantity of "guru" outfits out there, trying to make a quick buck by selling rubbish horse racing tips, continues to offer real information at the best prices around.
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